It appears that a math lesson is in order to update everyone on what could happen at the Oscars. The subject at hand is multiple nominations for the same movie in the same category. For example Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick are nominated in the Best Supporting Actress category for “Up in the Air”. Historical data suggests that neither of them stand a chance of taking home the golden statue.
Statistically speaking, of a total of 65 occurrences, co-stars competing in the same category have gone home without the Oscar for a total of 45 times. Mathematically, as two actors nominated from the same movie, Farmiga and Kendrick have a 40 % chance of winning the award. However, historically the number falls to 32 % as only 19 actors have succeeded out of 60 nominations. The numbers are worse when three actors are involved.
Even though the math suggests only a 40 % chance of success for one of them, history says otherwise. Out of the five occurrences of this circumstance only one actor, Robert De Niro, has succeeded in winning. He did this for his role in the 1974 epic flick “Godfather II” and won in the Best Supporting Actor category.
Multiple actors being nominated in a category situation is not a new thing while its first occurrence happened in 1935 when Franchot Tone, Charles Laughton and Clark Gable were nominated for “Mutiny on the Bounty.” The last successful winner when two actors were nominated was Catherine Zeta-Jones when she won against her co-star Queen Latifah in 2002 for “Chicago”.
Whether Farmiga and Kendrick can break the eight year hoodoo remains to be seen.